OSCAR PREDICTIONS (2010)


(3-2-10) Greetings again from the darkness.  As the great writer Stephen King said, people who “love” movies tend to “like” watching the Academy Awards presentations; and people who love watching the Oscars, tend to like watching movies.  Well, as usual, I am a bit different.  Of course, I LOVE movies … but watching the Oscars is an annual tradition for me – one that I can’t imagine skipping. 

My attraction to the event goes back to my childhood when this gathering of Hollywood’s elite presented a rare glimpse into the world of glamour and celebrity.   These days we know WAY TOO MUCH about most actors and the industry of celebrity has somehow eclipsed the art of moviemaking.  Even though much of the TV presentation is now committed to the ridiculous red carpet interviews centering around fashion, there remains something magical about watching the actors as real people (or as close as they get).

Below, I have recapped the main categories and offered up my predictions as well as my preferences.  I have resisted the urge to comment if my true preference did not even receive a nomination!  In reality, I expect very few surprises in the main categories, but then again …

BEST PICTURE – While I am not a fan of going back to the days of TEN nominations, I do understand the reasoning.

PREDICTION: The Hurt Locker – not many of us saw this during its theatrical, but it is an incredibly intense viewing experience.

PREFERENCE: An Education– no chance of a win, but it was my favorite film of 2009

BEST DIRECTOR

PREDICTION: Kathryn Bigelow – the former Mrs. James Cameron seems to be a shoe-in after winning the Director’s Guild Award for The Hurt Locker

PREFERENCE: James Cameron – Realizing Avatar didn’t require traditional directing, this industry changing film should bring a reward to its creative force (in my opinion)

BEST ACTOR

PREDICTION and PREFERENCE: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) – great performance by a great actor who, unbelievably, has never walked away with an Oscar.  This will be his first.

BEST ACTRESS

PREDICTION: Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side).  Sometimes an actor steps outside of the type of role they are best known for and the industry overreacts.  Try and imagine Ms. Bullock playing ANY role that Meryl Streep has ever played.

PREFERENCEMeryl Streep (Julie & Julia).  I am not a huge fan of this film, but Ms. Streep’s performance was so much deeper than an impersonation of Julia Child.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

PREDICTION and PREFERENCE: Christoph Waltz.  This may be the only recognition that Inglourious Basterds gets all evening, though I hope it takes a writing award as well.  Mr. Waltz was tremendous and is very deserving.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

PREDICTION and PREFERENCE: Mo’Nique.  Her performance in Precious terrified me.  This is the one sure bet for the evening.

ANIMATED FEATURE

PREDICTION and PREFERENCE: Up.  One of the rare animated features that deserved (and received) a Best Picture nomination.  There is some sentiment for Fantastic Mr. Fox, but Up has a tremendous story and terrific presentation.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

PREDICTION and PREFERENCE: The White Ribbon.  Unfortunately, I did not get to see a couple of this year’s nominations, but this German entry would be deserving most years.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (my favorite category)

PREDICTION: Mark Boal (The Hurt Locker)

PREFERENCE: Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds).  Not just deserving, but watching him give a speech always livens up any event!

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

PREDICTION: Geoffrey Flethcher (Precious).

PREFERENCE: Nick Hornby (An Education)

CINEMATOGRAPHY

PREDICTION: Avatar

PREFERENCE: The Hurt Locker

COSTUME DESIGN

PREDICTION: Nine

PREFERENCE: The Young Victoria

ANIMATED SHORT FILM (see my comments on the blog)

PREDICTION: A Matter of Loaf and Death

PREFERENCE: Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM (see my comments on the blog)

PREDICTION: The Door

PREFERENCE: Instead of Abracadabra

ORIGINAL SCORE

PREDICTION: Avatar

PREFERENCE: Up

ORIGINAL SONG

PREDICTION and PREFERENCE: “The Weary Kind” (Crazy Heart).  Gotta love T Bone Burnett!

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