OSCAR PREDICTIONS (2014)

February 28, 2014

oscars5 Each year I publish my Oscar predictions. I do so in a most straight-forward manner. My track record is pretty impressive (if I do say so myself) and more often than not, I end up with a better record than most national movie critics.  What I never do, is mislead myself or the readers.  Sandbagging is not my thing … Lou Holtz showed me what a poor quality that can be.

I can honestly say that this year provides less clarity, more uncertainty, than any year in recent memory.  Numerous categories have no real front-runner, and some have not just two, but three or four potential winners … even in some of the high profile categories!  As you might imagine, that makes a high number of accurate predictions extremely unlikely.  That’s not sandbagging, but rather full disclosure on this year’s predictions.

My theory on the elevated uncertainty stems from what I have labeled an extraordinary year for the number of good, quality, watchable movies … and an absolute void of truly great ones. There are nine nominated for Best Picture, and I would venture to say that not one will live on as a “must-watch” for the next 10 or 20 years (like say The Godfather or Lawrence of Arabia).

Below you will find my Predictions (my expected winner), my Preferences (my personal choice were I voting), and a brief description of each category.  After the ceremony, I will post a recap, regardless of my record, and provide some insight and observations.  Here’s hoping you enjoy.

BEST PICTURE

12 years This is an incredibly tight race between 12 Years a Slave (the traditionally favored historical drama) and Gravity (the box office bonanza).  A 3D sci-fi movie has yet to win the big award (Avatar, Hugo, Life of Pi), but Gravity could be the first. Because of how tight this is and the convoluted Academy voting methods, we can’t rule out American Hustle sneaking in and taking the statue.  Gravity is the one movie that could get on a roll and rack up a big number of Oscar wins.

Prediction: 12 Years a Slave (mostly because I’m not a big fan of Gravity)

Preference: Nebraska (my #2 film of the year)

BEST DIRECTOR

cuaron No matter the Best Picture winner, I fully expect Mr. Cuaron to win this award.  He was the driving force behind a technical marvel that raised the bar for future sci-fi films.  David O Russell once again proved he is a dream director for actors, while Martin Scorcese had the most fun he’s had in years. Steve McQueen directed the most powerful film, but Cuaron was ground-breaking.

Prediction:  Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity (yes, I am predicting a rare split between Best Picture and Best Director)

Preference: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

mm Matthew McConaughey has reinvented himself as an actor and is on quite a career roll.  If you haven’t seen him in HBO’s “True Detective”, you are really missing out. He has even inspired a new word, McConassaince. This is a ridiculously strong category with five worthy nominees, especially Chiwetel Ejifor.  Christian Bale is the only one in the group who has won an Oscar. It’s been 35 years since Bruce Dern’s last nomination, and this is Leonardo DiCaprio’s 4th nomination (no wins yet).

Prediction: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Preference: Matthew McConaughey (I thought he was even better in Mud)

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

cate Another very strong category, but one in which Cate Blanchett has been the favorite for months. Only a tidal wave of backlash against Woody Allen can stop her.  If that happens, 5 time nominee Amy Adams slides right in.  She is the only non-Oscar winner in the group.

Prediction: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Preference: Judi Dench, Philomena

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

jared leto This is one of the three picks closest to “a sure thing” on the ballot.  After touring with his rock band for 6 years, Jared Leto thought he would jump back into this acting thing. He delivered what is probably the year’s best overall performance from any actor.  Any other year, Barkhad Abdi or Michael Fassbender would have had my vote … they both frightened me!

Prediction: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Preference: Jaret Leto

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

lupito There is no wrong pick here (except of course, Julia Roberts). June Squibb stole every scene in Nebraska, Sally Hawkins brought humanity to Blue Jasmine, and Jennifer Lawrence was stunning in American Hustle.  Newcomer Lupito Nyong’o is the one who captured our heart in 12 Years a Slave.

Prediction: Lupito Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Preference: Jennifer Lawrence (this would be back-to-back Oscar wins for the 22 yr old)

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

frozen This is another of the 3 picks closest to “a sure thing”.  It’s been 14 years since Disney has won this category, and this year they have a $1 billion box office, critical raves and many entertained families. Anything other than Frozen will be a shocker. I am abstaining since I have not seen any of the nominees, though I am a fan of animation.

Prediction:  Frozen

Preference: abstain

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM

20 feet 20 Feet From Stardom is my favorite movie of the year, but it has tough competition from critic favorites The Act of Killing and The Square.  Both of these are extremely powerful and should be seen, but my pick is both insightful and crowd-pleasing. The prediction is based on the strong word-of-mouth and the all-out marketing blitz… including The Super Bowl.

Prediction: 20 Feet From Stardom

Preference: 20 Feet From Stardom

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

gravity Yet another impressive category, this time featuring the legendary John Williams with his 49th Oscar nomination.  Yes, 49!  Also on the ballot are two who are long past due for a win, Alexandre Desplat (6 nominations in 8 years) and Thomas Newman (10 nominations). Riding the expected wave of Gravity, look for Steven Price to take the win.

Prediction: Steven Price, Gravity

Preference: Alexandre Desplat, Philomena

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

Neither celebrities nor pop/rock stars have a strong track record with the Oscars, so don’t expect the hot-on-the-charts Pharrell Williams or rock gods U2 to eclipse “Let it Go” from Frozen.  While I have heard all the songs, I did not see all the movies, so I am abstaining (the category is supposed to reward the best use of song within the movie)

Prediction: “Let it Go“, Frozen, sung by Idina Menzell

Preference: abstain

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Gravity is the odds-on favorite to win this award since it was so extraordinary to look at on screen, and none of us are smart enough to know how much was special effects.  My personal favorite is Roger Deakins, whose fantastic camera work elevated Prisoners from TV movie to nail-biting thriller.

Prediction: Gravity

Preference: Prisoners

PRODUCTION DESIGN

gatsby If the voters can get over the divisiveness brought on by Baz Luhrmann’s interpretation of The Great Gatsby, and not get caught up in straight-lining their ballot for Gravity, the obvious choice here is Gatsby.  However, there is no way to know if either of those things will happen.  Gravity may continue its roll and well, Old Sport, Gatsby could get shut out.

Prediction: The Great Gatsby

Preference: The Great Gatsby

COSTUME DESIGN

am hustle Another of the incredibly tough categories to predict with three worthy nominees. 12 Years a Slave could get some love here just to offset the Gravity blitz, but American Hustle and The Great Gatsby were absolutely spot on in capturing their eras.  Any of these three would make worthy winners, as would The Grandmaster.

Prediction: American Hustle

Preference: The Great Gatsby

FILM EDITING

capt phillips Oscar voters tend to favor the rapid-fire cuts of action movies, but my preference was the expert and story-enhancing editing on display during American Hustle.

Prediction: Captain Phillips

Preference: American Hustle

SHORT FILM (DOCUMENTARY)

lady in no 6 Alice Herz-Sommer was 109 during filming and passed away last week at age 110. Her story is fascinating and blends her indomitable spirit, her world class piano talent and her Holocaust survival story.  Would you vote against this lady?  I certainly won’t.  I’m not sure how, or even if, this one will get distribution, but I highly recommend you track it down.

Prediction: The Lady in Number 6

Preference: The Lady in Number 6

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

get a horse I didn’t find the nominees to be as strong as years past, but it’s pretty hard to imagine Disney’s Get a Horse not winning.  It has the advantages of retro-Mickey Mouse and showing prior to the mega box office hit Frozen.

Prediction: Get a Horse

Preference: Room on the Broom (charming bedtime story with a message)

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

Again, not as strong as other years, but I expect the Oscar voters will defer to the project featuring the well known actors, rather than the touching and hyper-sensitive story of a terminally ill boy.

Prediction: The Voorman Problem

Preference: Helium

MAKE-UP AND HAIRSTYLING

dallas Since somehow the wig expo known as American Hustle did not receive a nomination, let’s go with the great work in Dallas Buyers Club … rumored to have a make-up budget of $250 (or a week’s worth of lipstick for Sandra Bullock)

 

Prediction: Dallas Buyers Club

Preference: Dallas Buyers Club

SOUND EDITING

The sound editor gathers the ingredients; the sound mixer makes the soup.  Gravity had very unusual sound needs … we had to believe the characters were in space.

Prediction: Gravity

Preference: Gravity

SOUND MIXING

The sound editor gathers the ingredients; the sound mixer makes the soup.  The sound of Inside Llewyn Davis perfectly captured the Greenwich Village feel for me, while I have serious doubt about how much on set sound Gravity actually used.

Prediction: Gravity

Preference: Inside Llewn Davis

VISUAL EFFECTS

The single biggest “sure thing” of the night.  This category describes the movie Gravity.  It is a unique and revolutionary viewing experience (in 3D, on a huge screen).   For those who are waiting to watch it on their home TV, I predict much disappointment.

Prediction: Gravity

Preference: Gravity

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

her This looks to be a close race between Her and American Hustle. Her seems to be the most unique, but I had zero connection to the film, the characters or the story (yes, I am the only one on the globe who feels this way).  Nebraska seems so small in comparison, but the genius is in appearing effortless while so many emotions are flying.

Prediction: Her

Preference: Nebraska (Bob Nelson’s personal project)

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

Four very powerful and personal stories: a free man turned slave, a woman’s quest to find her son, a ship captain’s horrific ordeal, and a despicable con artist on the road to ruin.  I think this comes down to a toss-up between Soloman Northrup vs Philomena Lee.

Prediction: 12 Years a Slave

Preference: 12 Years a Slave

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

great beauty Italy’s entry The Great Beauty is the most visually stylish, and the other four are pretty much downers in tone.  Still, I found The Hunt (Denmark) with Mads Mikkelsen (a great performance) to be mesmerizing.

Prediction: The Great Beauty

Preference: The Hunt

If you would like to see my “BEST of 2013” list, please visit:  https://moviereviewsfromthedark.com/annual-bests-2/best-of-2013/

As always, your feedback is welcome.  Enjoy the Oscars!

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Posted by David Ferguson

OSCAR NOMINATED SHORTS: Live Action and Animated (2013)

February 9, 2014

Greetings again from the darkness. Yes, it’s almost Oscar time again! This past weekend, I took my annual trek to the Magnolia Theatre to check out this year’s nominated Short Films – Animated and Live Action.  If you have never taken advantage of this opportunity, I would encourage you to do so. It is always an interesting 3-4 hours that keeps your mind (and eyes) spinning, while reminding us that short films are quite a different skill set than feature films.  Though I didn’t find this year’s films to be exceptionally memorable, it’s still insightful to view the variance in styles and substance from different countries and filmmakers.  I must say the nominations were a bit heavy on drama, with only a couple of exceptions.  Even the animation films were mostly adult in nature, which is unusual.

Below is my quick recap of each, with each category in order of my preference (not my Oscar predictions):

LIVE ACTION

voorman Helium (Denmark) – a young, terminally ill boy is bed-ridden and trying to come to terms with waiting to die. A kindly orderly befriends him and weaves a fantastical ongoing story to ease the boy’s acceptance of the afterlife.  It’s a combination of fine acting and special effects.

That Wasn’t Me (Aquel No Era Yo, Spain) – aid workers are taken hostage in Sierra Leone and we witness the brutal atrocities of war with an emphasis on child soldiers.  It is extremely well made, but torturous to watch.

Do I Have to Take Care of Everything? (Finland) – a light-hearted look at the chaotic morning of a family running late for a wedding, and the added stress brought on by a Supermom. This was a nice dose of levity amongst the darker films.

The Voorman Problem (UK) – Martin Freeman and Tom Hollander (pictured left) star in a an unusual prison-based vignette where, this time, it’s not the doctor who thinks he is God.

Just Before Losing Everything (Avant Que De Tout Perdre, France) – a frustrating situation where a mother tries to extricate herself and her kids from an abusive home place.  I say frustrating because no one will pick up the phone and call the freakin’ cops.  I understand the fear, but this sets a horrible example for those in this situation.

ANIMATED

get a horse lg Room on the Broom (UK) – this is the simplest story of the group, and it’s designed to be a children’s story with a message.  An extremely friendly witch and her constantly annoyed cat team up with a dog, a bird and a frog to defeat a fire-breathing dragon. It’s from the people who brought us The Gruffalo, and has celebrity voice acting from Gillian Anderson, Simon Pegg and Sally Hawkins.

Mr Hublot (France) – the most intricate and stunning animation of the group features an obsessive-compulsive recluse whose life changes dramatically after he adopts a robodog.

Get a Horse! (U.S.) – the Disney entry is undoubtedly the most-seen of the group since it was shown prior to Frozen, one of the year’s biggest box office hits.  It’s a fabulous combination of old and new, as it starts out in classic Black & White and morphs into full color.  Mickey (Walt Disney’s voice) and Minnie Mouse are on a joyride with Horace Horsecollar and Clarabelle Cow until Peg-leg Pete starts causing trouble. The only problem with this one is the frenetic pace that makes it impossible to catch all the sight gags.

Feral (U.S.) – speaking of retro, this is Daniel Sousa’s hand-drawn, slightly dark story of the attempt to civilize a young boy raised in the woods.  While it looks beautiful, the story seems incomplete.

Possessions (Japan) – in the footsteps of Japan’s fantastic history of anime, a traveler takes refuge from a storm in a most unusual temple.  The colors are amazing, but the story lacks a real message … every item has a soul??

**NOTE: since it was presented as “Commended”, I would like to mention Pixar’s The Blue Umbrella, which somehow did not make the final cut.  It was shown prior to Monsters University and is a visual delight, and includes the usual Pixar emotions.

here is the teaser trailer for The Blue Umbrella:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdyxqidiW1U

2 Comments | Animation, Comedy, Drama, Fantasy, Sci-Fi, Short film, War, World Cinema/Foreign | Tagged: , , , | Permalink
Posted by David Ferguson

OSCARS recap (2013)

February 25, 2013

oscars5“Seth MacFarlane was awesome!”  “Seth MacFarlane sucks!”  “Who is Seth MacFarlane?”

No matter which of the above reactionary groups you fall into, the members of the Academy are beside themselves with happiness today.  You might ask why.  The simple answer is RATINGS!  TV Ratings in the coveted 18-49 demo jumped up 19% over last year.  However, since you and I are not in the TV ratings business, it’s more fun to discuss The Oscars from our perspective as viewers and movie lovers.

As previously stated in my Oscar Predictions, outside of a couple of “no brainers”, this was a particularly difficult year to predict.  No single movie was positioned to “run the table” and in fact, nine different films were named winners in 18 different categories featuring wide releases.  Life of Pi led the way with 4 Oscars; Argo and Les Miserables had three each; Lincoln, Django Unchained, and Skyfall had two apiece; and Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty and Anna Karenina each had one.  Bruce, a loyal and informed blog follower from San Antonio, pointed out the rare result of a different film winning for each of the “Big 6” categories: Best Picture (Argo), Best oscar3Director (Life of Pi), Best Actor (Lincoln), Best Actress (Silver Linings Playbook), Supporting Actor (Django Unchained), Supporting Actress (Les Miserables). Given all of this, I feel quite satisfied with correctly predicting 19 of the 24 categories.

In addition to host Seth MacFarlane, also new to the Oscar presentation were show producers Craig Zadan and Neil Meron.  They were Executive Producers on Best Picture winner Chicago (2002).  There was an awkward pre-show opening with Chicago star Queen Latifah, followed by a bizarre gag with William Shatner appearing from the future as Captain Kirk from Star Trek … evidently the purpose of which was to make advance apologies for a weak show that was just beginning.  Later, an inordinate amount of stage time was allowed for a Chicago musical number by Catherine Zeta-Jones; and then Mark Wahlberg and the bear (voiced by MacFarlane) from MacFarlane’s summer hit Ted took to the stage.  If all that wasn’t enough, the Chicago cast reunited to present two awards.  While we are accustomed to excessive narcissism in Hollywood, but this was just too much “Hey, look at oscars4me!”

My favorite performance of the evening was when 76 year old Shirley Bassey brought the full house to their feet with her rendering of the great James Bond theme from Goldfinger.  Her still powerful voice saved the 50th Anniversary celebration of the Bond franchise (after a weak montage), and later Adele delivered a soulful version of the Skyfall theme, the first Best Original Song winner from a Bond film.

Other good and not so good (I’ll leave it to you to categorize as you wish):

* Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) became the first 3 time Best Actor winner, and gave a very classy and gracious acceptance speech

* Barbra Streisand performed on the Oscar stage for the first time in 36 years

* Sally Field got her moment in the spotlight thanks to a strange segment paying tribute to her old TV show “The Flying Nun” (1967-70)

* Seth MacFarlane served up tasteless jokes on Chris Brown/Rhianna (neither a movie actor) and Abraham Lincoln (the President, not the movie).

* Quentin Tarantino paid tribute to actors and also proclaimed this the year of the writer

* Ang Lee showed again what a nice man he is, though he missed an opportunity to show support for Rhythm and Hues

* There was no shortage of Oscar winning men with hair longer than Alexander Gudunov in Die Hard (1988)

* Tommy Lee Jones smiled on camera less than 2 minutes into the ceremony

* The Sound Editing category produced just the 6th TIE in Oscar history

* Anne Hathaway purred “It came true” … the most contrived prepared line of the evening

* The producer of the Oscar winning Animated Short Film Paperman was ejected from the ceremony … for throwing paper airplanes (a key component in the film)

* Ben Affleck stated no matter how many times you get knocked down, what matters is getting back up … proof that millionaire movie stars think starring in a bad movie (Gigli) or two (Jersey Girl) or three (Daredevil) actually qualifies as getting knocked down.

* The first Oscars featuring sock monkeys in an integrated cockpit

* Nine year old Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild) spoke for women everywhere when she admitted selecting her dress because “it was sparkly and fluffy” (she accessorized with a puppy purse!)

* Ann Rutherford starred in 60+ movies, including Gone with the Wind but didn’t warrant inclusion during the In Memoriam section

* Andy Griffith starred in one of Elia Kazan’s finest movies (A Face in the Crowd) but didn’t warrant inclusion during the In Memoriam section

* Harvey Weinstein flexed his enormous Hollywood power-player muscles and arranged for First Lady Michelle Obama to present the Best Picture Oscar from the White House … A perfect ending to a show that, at times, seemed to treat movies as an afterthought.

After The Oscars, Jimmy Kimmel ran a tribute/spoof of Life of Pi that featured singer Psy:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ZddNn22kOU

 

2 Comments | Articles | Tagged: , , | Permalink
Posted by David Ferguson

OSCAR PREDICTIONS (2013)

February 23, 2013

oscars1 Every year I boldly offer up my Oscar predictions prior to the ceremony.  This seems like a good year to rant a bit about my perception of the Academy Awards. As a guy who spends an inordinate amount of time in movie theatres, and then takes that obsession even further by spending hours writing about those movies, I’ll admit that I enjoy the Academy Awards ceremony as a celebration of movies.  That said, what I find absurd is the “competition” and the ridiculous designation of “Best” in any category.  I view movies as an art form and while I often select my FAVORITE movies, I find judging the “best” to be as ridiculous as selecting the best sculpture or painting. Admittedly, I feel the same about Olympic sports that are decided by a panel of judges.  When judging is involved, then opinions are involved.  When opinions are involved, then politics and personal vendettas become involved. Whatever your feelings toward Hollywood, you probably acknowledge no shortage of opinions, politics and vendettas in that world.  To think that these emotional, artistic beings can be objective when voting is naïve at best.  Enough of the rant, let’s discuss the movies!

It was a huge year at the box office.  Six of the nine “Best Picture” nominations have gone over $100 million at the domestic box office, and another, Zero Dark Thirty, is almost there. As a comparison, of last year’s nominations, only The Help reached $100 million domestically. Most surprising, the indie hit Beasts of the Southern Wild actually provided the best financial return of all the nominees, as its $12.5 million box office is 8 times its measly production cost of only $1.5 million (over 700% return!).  Life of Pi is approaching $600 million worldwide, while Les Miserables and Django Unchained are nearing $400 million. What’s really impressive about these numbers is that none of the nominated films cracked the Top 10 Worldwide Box Office for 2012 releases.  Three movies eclipsed the $1 Billion mark: The Avengers, Skyfall, The Dark Knight Rises (plus, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey will get there in the next couple of weeks).  In all, 69 releases went over the $100 million mark in worldwide box office.

So let’s talk Oscars.  There are a few “obvious” picks, but an unusually high number of categories that could go two or three different ways.  There will be surprises and it’s a very challenging year for predictions; but that doesn’t frighten me … especially since I have nothing at stake. Some specifics of the Oscar politics this year include the scandals revolving around the three historical dramas: Lincoln, Argo, and Zero Dark Thirty. Somehow the dramatic license taken by Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty has created a storm of controversy for those films, while the Hollywood-created climax to Argo has it being adopted like a wet puppy.  Similarly, a “Saturday Night Live” gag by Jennifer Lawrence escalated into a “she hates Jessica Chastain” campaign by the media. And in a bizarre twist, a stoic face amidst Golden Globes laughter has caused Tommy Lee Jones to be labeled as the guy who just doesn’t care enough.  And none of those match the outrage voiced by critics when Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow did not receive Best Director nominations. Movie Critics are not known for their math skills.  Nine Best Picture nominations and five Best Director nominations equates to four Directors who aren’t nominated despite their films being named. The “I guess the movie directed itself” argument is lame and misplaced. Still, there is a good chance that Argo wins Best Picture in a year when its director was not nominated.  That’s only happened 3 previous times.

oscars2 This year’s Oscar event is being hosted by the very talented and somewhat strange Seth MacFarlane.  If you don’t know the name, he is the creative genius behind such money-makers as “Family Guy” and Ted.  He has voiced an incredible number of characters including Peter, Brian and Stewie from “Family Guy” and Ted from Ted, and is even nominated for an Oscar for co-writing a song from Ted. MacFarlane’s humor can run to the crude and rude, but he is also a classically trained singer, so expect a song to go with his many voices. The program will also feature the first Academy Awards performance from Barbra Streisand in many years, but what’s much more exciting than all that is that the show will feature a 50th Anniversary James Bond tribute.  All of the actors who have portrayed 007 have been invited (expect some no-shows), and as a special bonus the great Shirley Bassey is set to perform.  She belted out my favorite all-time Bond theme with Goldfinger, as well as Diamonds are Forever and Moonraker.

As is my tradition, you will find both my PREDICTION and my PREFERENCE for each of the 24 categories.

BEST PICTURE

argoPrediction: ARGO.  Ben Affleck’s true life drama has swept the Guild’s: Producer, Director, Writer, and Screen Actor.  Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook would be the only possible surprise winners, but anything other than Argo would actually be a shock!

Preference: Lincoln.  It leads all films with twelve nominations, but its best chances are in Best Actor and Best Supporting categories. On the bright side, the DVD is being shipped to every middle school and high school in the United States.

BEST DIRECTOR

ang leePrediction: ANG LEE (Life of Pi).  With Argo a likely winner and its director (Ben Affleck) not nominated, this category is wide open.  Expect the beloved Ang Lee to edge out Steven Spielberg (Lincoln) and David O Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

Preference: Ang Lee (Life of Pi)  While Lincoln was my favorite movie of the year, Ang Lee directed the one movie that was based on an “unfilmable” book … and did so with breath-taking flair.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

DDLPrediction: DANIEL DAY-LEWIS. The one absolute this evening.  DDL will become the first ever three time Oscar winner for Best Actor.  Katherine Hepburn was a four time winner for Best Actress, but no man has won three times. His performance was transcendent.

Preference: Daniel Day-Lewis.  I will say that Joaquin Phoenix was terrific in The Master and it’s wonderful that Bradley Cooper became a “real” actor in Silver Linings Playbook.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

jenniferPrediction: JENNIFER LAWRENCE. This is a three way race that includes Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) and Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty). If the SNL gig didn’t cost Ms. Lawrence too many votes or Ms. Riva doesn’t capture too many “last chance” votes, the most exciting young actress working today will win her first Oscar.  If Ms. Riva wins, she will be the oldest ever Oscar winner, and if Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild) wins, she will be the youngest ever Oscar winner … though she would never win if Oscar voters had to correctly spell her first name without looking.

Preference: Jennifer Lawrence.  I thoroughly enjoyed all five performances in this category, and in many other years, Naomi Watts (The Impossible) would have been the frontrunner.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

deniroPrediction: ROBERT DENIRO.  The frontrunner since the nominations were announced has been Tommy Lee Jones, so this is a risky prediction.  All five nominees have previously won an Oscar, but incredibly, it’s been 32 years since DeNiro last won. What a talented group!

Preference: Robert DeNiro or Christoph Waltz. It was thrilling to see DeNiro engaged again, and those who claim Waltz simply reprised his Inglourious Basterds character really missed out, though the argument could be made that Samuel L Jackson was the key support role for Django Unchained.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

anne hathawayPrediction: ANNE HATHAWAY. Aside from Best Actor, this is probably the next sure thing.  It’s remarkable to think she may win based on one scene and one song and one haircut. Some have Sally Field in an upset here (hope not!), and Amy Adams and Jacki Weaver are two of my favorite actresses.  Unfortunately, neither of their nominated roles really pushed them.

Preference: Anne Hathaway.  The song was outstanding, even though her couple of other scenes were very distracting for me. Still, her song is more impressive than Sally Field’s 25 pound weight gain.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

bravePrediction:  BRAVE. It’s a two film race between Brave and Wreck-it Ralph, and the demographic breakdown of the Academy leads me to believe the “safe” pick will win over the more impressive one, but this could go either way.

Preference: Frankenweenie. While this has been Tim Burton’s pet project for two decades, I have an emotional attachment to it as well. It’s a shame more people didn’t give it a chance. It’s a beautiful film with terrific characters.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

sugarmanPrediction: SEARCHING FOR SUGARMAN. A wonderful feel-good story of re-discovery and second chances that did very well at the box office and with its soundtrack.  The movie has a surreal feel to it, and face it, we need upbeat stories coming out of Detroit these days.  The Gatekeepers or How to Survive a Plague could sneak in, but it’s doubtful.

Preference: Searching for Sugarman.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

Prediction: Mychael Danna (Life of Pi).  Alexandre Desplat (Argo) and John Williams (Lincoln) could easily win, but much of Life of Pi depended on the score, while the others were more complimentary and traditional.

Preference: Mychael Danna (Life of Pi).  It was nice to see Thomas Newman nominated for Skyfall because the score was crucial for that film as well.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

adelePrediction: SKYFALL by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth. One of the best ever Bond themes and probably becomes the first to win.  The original Les Miserables song was lame and I’d venture a guess that you don’t remember the other 3 nominations.

Preference: Skyfall by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth. Mostly I want this to win so that my son will have it stuck in his head for a few more days. Plus the first Bond song win as the Academy celebrates 50 years of Bond is just perfect.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

life of piPrediction: Claudio Miranda (Life of Pi). Contrary to popular belief, this is not just a special effects movie. Mr. Miranda helped created a beautiful and visually seductive film.  His competition is probably the great Roger Deakins (Skyfall) who inexplicably is 0 for 9 in Oscar nominations. It’s doubtful that the Academy would vote two Oscars for a Bond movie, but Deakins deserves recognition.

Preference: Claudio Miranda (Life of Pi). Mr. Miranda earned it for the movie, but Deakins deserves it for his body of work.

PRODUCTION DESIGN (formerly Art Design)

Prediction: David Gropman and Anna Pinnock (Life of Pi).  This movie is a technical marvel, and Lincoln also had some fantastic attention to detail.

Preference: David Gropman and Anna Pinnock (Life of Pi).  They have earned it, but a Lincoln win would not be disappointing … which I can’t say about Les Miserables, Anna Karenina, or The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

COSTUME DESIGN

Prediction: Seamus McGarvey (Anna Karenina).  Costume dramas are historically Academy favorites in this category, though Lincoln and Les Miserables could both be factors.

Preference: anything but Mirror Mirror.  I have nightmares that Julia Roberts might make an appearance onstage if this one wins. (Yeah, I know … my dreams aren’t what they used to be)

FILM EDITING

argoPrediction: William Goldenberg (Argo) in a close one over Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg (yes, the same one) for Zero Dark Thirty. Mr. Goldenberg is a rock star editor.

Preference:  Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg (Zero Dark Thirty).  The bin Laden fortress sequence was one of the most compelling things I’ve ever seen on screen.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Prediction: Open Heart.  Only like 9 people vote in this category, so three votes wins.  Yes, I’m kidding, but predicting this category is a total guess.

Preference:  a quick acceptance speech

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

papermanPrediction: PAPERMAN by John Kahrs.  This one has a nice behind the scenes production story but will have to take down Pixar and Disney and Maggie Simpson to win.

Preference: Head Over Heels by Timothy Reckart and Fodhia Cronin O’Reilly. Evidently I’m the only one who appreciated this one.  Yep, I’m a rebel.

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

curfewPrediction: CURFEW by Shawn Christensen in a race against Buzkashi Boys.  Another tough category because so few voters watch them all.

Preference: Death of a Shadow by Tom Van Avermaet and Ellen De Waele.  This one is even darker than Curfew. There was a real shortage of upbeat live action shorts this year.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING (formerly MAKEUP)

Les miserablesPrediction: Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell (Les Miserables).  They deserve it for bravely working with Helena Bonham Carter’s hair and chopping off Anne Hathaway’s long locks.  Hitchcock and The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey leaned heavily (that’s not a fat joke) on appliances and prosthetics, while Les Mis created a distinct feel through traditional hair and make-up.

Preference: Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell (Les Miserables).

SOUND EDITING

Prediction: Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton (Life of Pi) should eke out a win over five outstanding nominated films.

Preference: Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton (Life of Pi).

SOUND MIXING

Prediction: Andy Nelson, Mark Peterson, Simon Hayes (Les Miserables).  How many other films featured live singing on set for the entire movie?  Half a movie?  A single scene?  That’s right … none.  Whether you enjoyed Russell Crowe’s singing or not, “live” singing for a quality movie is very impressive.

Preference: Andy Nelson, Mark Peterson, Simon Hayes (Les Miserables).

VISUAL EFFECTS

life of piPrediction: LIFE OF PI.  Should be a slam dunk.  This is the most visually impressive film in quite some time.  Plus, I don’t even like 3D and yet the 3D effects left me in awe.

Preference: Life of Pi.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

zero dark thirtyPrediction: Mark Boal (Zero Dark Thirty).  This one qualified as original because of the independent research conducted by Mr. Boal. Much of the film has Jessica Chastain sitting at a desk and yet the tension is palpable.  That’s quality writing.  And the two key tension-filled action sequences will have you squirming in your seat.

Preference: Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained). This is not my preference just because I love watching Tarantino speak in public, but this along with Wes Anderson’s Moonrise Kingdom were the most unique fiction seen on the silver screen this year.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

argoPrediction: Chris Terrio (Argo). If it wins this award, the Best Picture Oscar is in the bag.  If David O Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) pulls an upset, then Best Picture is up for grabs.

Preference: David Magee (Life of Pi).  This book was deemed unfilmable for years, yet Magee drafted a script that allowed Ang Lee to bring the story to life. That’s a monumental achievement.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

amourPrediction: AMOUR (Austria) in a narrow win over Kon-Tiki (Norway). Amour is also nominated for Best Picture, which is an unusual occurrence for a foreign film.

Preference: Amour (Austria).  It’s a very tough movie to watch and even tougher to recommend, but director Michael Haneke delivers a stunning look at slow death.  Doesn’t that make you want to rush out to see it?

*NOTE: I certainly don’t expect Life of Pi to win as many Oscars as I have predicted; however, I have based my predictions on the individual categories and not the total number of wins.  In other words, I expect to be wrong, I’m just not sure in which categories.

If you would care to see my Best of 2012 list (yes, I realizeit’s hypocritical for me to use “Best”, but old habits are hard to break), here is the link:   best of 2012

As always, I welcome your thoughts, comments and predictions!

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Posted by David Ferguson

OSCAR NOMINATED SHORTS – Live Action and Animated (2012)

February 21, 2013

Greetings again from the darkness. In what has become an annual ritual, I got to take in all of this year’s Oscar nominated short films.  It really is enjoyable and it reminds me of a mini-film festival.  Taking in so many films by so many different filmmakers in a short period of time is pure joy for a movie lover.  This yearthere was the added bonus of having each of the presentations (Live Action and Animated) “hosted” by previous short film Oscar winners William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg (The Flying Books of Mr Morris Lessmore) and Luke Matheny (God of Love).  The best short films all share one obvious trait … the care and love that goes into the making of each.

Below is my recap by category, in order of preference (not my Oscar predictions):

LIVE ACTION

short death of a shadow Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw, Belgium) Directed by Tom Van Avermaet.  Very odd story of an “art” collector who captures souls through the shadows of those in their moment of death. Nathan is a former soldier who agreed to capture 10,000 shadows for the collector in the hopes of re-discovering his long lost love Sarah. Jealousy and disappointment lead to undesired consequences.  There are many life lessons crammed into this short film.  This one has a unique look and pace.

Henry (Canada) Directed by Yan England. Henry is an old man who has flashbacks as he tries to make sense of his current life.  He was a concert pianist who met his wife, a violinst during the war. These visions are clear in Henry’s head, but he doesn’t know why this lady keeps showing up … then he recognizes her … and then he doesn’t. It’s easy enough to figure out, but very touching with a top notch performance by Gerard Poirier.  The End card has a quote that is apparently from the director’s father.  It goes something like this: “The worst thing about being an old man is realizing you are losing memories”.

Curfew (USA) Directed by Shawn Christensen, who also stars as Richie, the slacker brother who his sister stoops to calling in a moment of desperation.  He agrees to look after his niece Sophia (Fatima Ptacek).  To do so, he has to climb out of the suicide tub he was in when the phone rang. Is this his chance at redemption? Sophia is very smart and fascinating to watch, but it’s tough to shake that opening image of Richie.  Dancing, a bowling alley and some special flipbooks add a level of poignancy to this one.

Asad (South Africa) Directed by Bryan Buckley, who is world renowned for his commercials – especially Super Bowl ads. Here we see that life in Somalia means you are either a Sea Pirate, a Street Thug, an old fisherman, or one of the scared, faceless masses. Asad is a smart, charismatic young boy too young to join the pirates and too smart to get killed by the thugs. His fishing trip would be among my worst days ever, but for him it’s a coming of age.  Did you catch that?

Buzkashi Boys (Afghanistan/USA) Directed by Sam French. My first exposure to the rough sport of Buzkashi … free-for-all polo played with a dead goat.  Ahmad and Rafi are young boys and good friends set against the backdrop of war-ravaged Afghanistan. It’s a tough world for Ahmad, an orphan who hustles on the street for a little food and small change. Life’s not much better for his more reserved friend Rafi, the son of a harsh blacksmith, who is no fan of Ahmad or wasting daylight hours. The ending is not what you might expect, but it’s beautifully shot and well acted by the boys.

ANIMATED

short head over heels Head Over Heels (UK) Directed by Timothy Reckart. Expert claymation depicting an aging married couple that have grown apart emotionally, but have a seemingly comfortable arrangement – despite the visual loss of equilibrium. The husband tries a simple gesture in an effort to re-connect, but the wife misunderstands and it turns their crazy world upside down (again). It’s a heart-warming story of re-discovery.

Fresh Guacamole (USA) Directed by Adam Pesapane aka PES. At 1 minute, 45 seconds this is the shortest short ever nominated for an Oscar. It’s a visual feast as it uses everyday items such as a pool ball, baseball, dice and poker chips to create a stunning bowl of fresh guacamole. Of course, there is no dialogue but it’s colorful to look at and will generate a smile.

Maggie Simpson in “The Longest Daycare” (USA) Directed by David Silverman, producer of the TV series and director of the feature length The Simpsons Movie (2007) and Monsters, Inc (2001).  Marge drops off Maggie (yes, with pacifier) at The Ayn Rand School for Tots.  Kids are divided into “Gifted” and “Nothing Special”. Maggie desperately wants the zen-like environment offered by the gifted area, but instead is hounded by a brutish boy who loves to stomp all living things.  Maggie’s mission is to save a poor butterfly and she uses much trickery in the process.  The short has no dialogue and seems like a segment pulled directly from the brilliant and long-running series.

Adam and Dog (USA) Directed by Minkyu Lee, also nominated for artwork in Wreck-it Ralph. This is a story of Adam in the Garden of Eden and his making friends with a dog. There is no dialogue in this short and it employees my least favorite type of animation. Still, it’s a nice treat watching Adam and the dog bond … well, until Eve enters the picture.  The dog remains loyal until it’s clear to him that Adam has not.

Paperman (USA) Directed by John Kahrs, an animator at Pixar for 15 years.  A chance meeting at the train station between an office clerk and a lovely woman lead to lipstick on the page and a feverish hunt to track down his dream girl.  Rarely have paper airplanes been so vital to a man’s day or the success of a film.  Serendipity and destiny are key players.

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Posted by David Ferguson

TMI (3-29-12)

March 29, 2012

TMI (Today’s Movie Info)

Oscars trivia

 

 

 

 

Not including “no-show” winners, the record for the shortest acceptance speech is shared by William Holden (above)and renowned director Alfred Hitchcock (below). They both simply said, “Thank you.”

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Posted by David Ferguson

TMI (3-16-12)

March 16, 2012

TMI (Today’s Movie Info)

Oscar trivia

 Oscar winners don’t really own their statues. Upon being presented with their award, winners must sign an agreement stating that should they wish to sell their statuettes, they must first offer them to the Academy for $1.00 If they refuse to sign, they cannot keep their trophy. The rule has been in effect since 1950, which means that older statues do sometimes appear on the open market. If you feel like bidding, be prepared to pay a lot more than $1.00, though: Steven Speielberg bought Bette Davis’ Oscar for $578,000 in 2001 and donated it back to the Academy, and Michael Jackson paid over a million dollars for David O Selznick’s award in 1999.

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Posted by David Ferguson

TMI (3-7-12)

March 7, 2012

TMI (Today’s Movie Info)

Oscar trivia

Marlon Brando and Robert De Niro are the only two actors to win Oscars (Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor) for playing the same character in different films: Vito Corleone in The Godfather (1972) and The Godfather, Part II (1974), respectively.

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Posted by David Ferguson

TMI (3-6-12)

March 6, 2012

TMI (Today’s Movie Info)

Oscar trivia

There are five writers who have each won 3 Oscars for their screenplays:

WOODY ALLEN: Annie Hall*; Hannah and Her Sisters; Midnight in Paris
CHARLES BRACKETT: The Lost Weekend*; Sunset Boulevard; Titanic (1953)
PADDY CHAYEFSKY: Marty*; The Hospital; Network
FRANCIS FORD COPPOLA: Patton*; The Godfather*; The Godfather: Part II*
BILLY WILDER: The Lost Weekend*; Sunset Boulevard; The Apartment*

*Best Picture Winner

 

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Posted by David Ferguson

OSCARS recap (2012)

February 27, 2012

Greetings again from the darkness.  Well the 84th Academy Awards came and went with very few surprises, a plodding pace, and (mostly) safe show from Billy Crystal, back for his 9th time as host. The ceremony began with the expected video montage/mash-up/spoof with Crystal appearing in key scenes from the year’s top films … including a hospital bed kiss from George Clooney (as his character from The Descendants).  That opening would have been fine, but then we were subjected to another Crystal tradition – the musical medley of all nine Best Picture nominations. Additionally, the opening provided the first of at least three cracks about the removal of Kodak’s naming rights to the theatre (“Ch. 11 Theatre”).

Two things became clear as the evening progressed: there was a concerted effort to “sell” the magic of movies, and the shuffled order of awards did not work so well.  The “talking head” shots played throughout had numerous actors (and moms) talking about the impact of movies on their lives; an obvious reaction to the down year at the box office in 2011.  The funniest part of these interludes was the multiple appearances by Adam Sandler the day after he received a record 11 Razzies nominations. He has made plenty of big box office movies, but has never been what you would call an Oscar favorite.

 The Artist and Hugo were the top winners of the evening with 5 Oscars each.  As expected, the black & white silent film won the biggies: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor.  The wins for Hugo were more technical: cinematography, sound, visual effects.  There were only a couple of winners that could be termed a surprise, and what many thought would be the closest race (Best Actress) went to 17 time nominee, and now 3 time winner, Meryl Streep, for her performance as Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady.  As for my personal pre-Oscar predictions, I got 18 of 24 categories correct.

In no particular order, here are some of my random observations and thoughts:

Christopher Plummer became the oldest Oscar winner at age 82 (for Beginners), and I wish he had pulled out a guitar and sang “Edelweiss”

Meryl Streep is an amazing actress … maybe the best ever …but her acceptance speeches are wretched.

Did anyone ever imagine that P Diddy (producer of Undefeated) would win an Oscar before Viola Davis or Glenn Close?

The Academy Awards technical team could not, given 3 hours, fix the audio problem on the stage microphones?

Chris Rock was very funny talking about voice acting. Now that is comedy talent.  He should be hosting.

Emma Stone brought energy and goofiness to an evening in need of life-support. Were she and Ben Stiller riffing on James Franco and Anne Hathaway or was that just my imagination?

Iran, Pakistan and France were all winners.  There has to be a punchline there somewhere.

The Scorcese drinking game has gone viral thanks to Rose Byrne and Melissa McCarthy.

The Worst Precedent: allowing Sacha Baron Cohen to walk the red carpet as the character from his upcoming movie.  At future Oscar ceremonies, should we expect super heroes, cartoon characters and movie dogs … maybe studio-sponsored gowns?

Christopher Guest’s band of comedy misfits was pretty funny in the “Focus Group” bit revolving around The Wizard of Oz and flying monkeys.

Cirque du Soleil performers are incredibly talented and athletic … much more daring than Angelina Jolie’s exposed right leg.

You know how you can tell things aren’t all bad … Flight of the Conchords got some recognition!  Congratulations to Bret McKenzie for his “Man or Muppet” Oscar.

Winner I would have liked to have seen: God is the Bigger Elvis for Short Documentary. That would have given actress-turned-nun Dolores Hart her moment on stage

Interesting red carpet moment: Prince Albert of Monaco attended as a guest of Disney.  He is the son of Grace Kelly, who died 30 years ago.

Most Inspirational: breast cancer survivors Robin Roberts and Giuliana Rancic were working the red carpet for ABC and E! Network, respectively.

 This year’s Academy Awards will receive some of the same criticism it receives every year.  However, it should be remembered that, at its core, this is an awards ceremony.  That means announcing nominees, handing out trophies, and giving the winners a chance to say thanks.  Some of those winners are as humble and touched as Octavia Spencer, and that’s good enough for me.  So whether you love or hate the Oscars, don’t confuse that with the magic of the movies.  It seemed appropriate to end on a sales pitch for movies!

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Posted by David Ferguson

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